7 Essential FPL Stats Every Manager Should Track Weekly

1. Expected Goals (xG): Predicts goal-scoring potential. Use it to spot reliable attackers and captain picks.
2. Expected Assists (xA): Highlights players creating chances. Great for identifying midfielders and wing-backs.
3. Clean Sheet Probabilities: Helps pick defenders and goalkeepers with high point potential.
4. Player Ownership Trends: Track popular and low-owned players to balance risk and find differentials.
5. Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR): Plan transfers and captaincy by analyzing upcoming matchups.
6. Form and Consistency: Spot steady performers over streaky players.
7. Injury and Suspension Updates: Avoid wasted transfers by staying informed.

Why it matters:

• Make smarter transfers and captaincy decisions.
• Balance short-term gains with long-term planning.
• Gain a competitive edge using data-driven insights.

Use these stats weekly to climb the ranks and outsmart your competition. Ready to dive deeper? Let’s break down each one.

How to Make Better FPL Decisions Using Stats and Eye Test

The Role of FPL Statistics

FPL success often hinges on understanding stats, offering insights that go beyond intuition. Breaking these numbers into specific metrics can make all the difference.

Spotting Attacking Potential
Stats can highlight players likely to deliver goals or assists. Take Brighton, for instance - their consistent xG performance ^[1] points to strong scoring opportunities, making their attacking players solid picks early on.

Guiding Defensive Picks
Metrics like Arsenal's 53% clean sheet probability ^[2] help managers pinpoint defenders and goalkeepers worth investing in, ensuring a more secure backline.

Home vs. Away Performance
Venue-specific stats can shape your team choices. For example, Tottenham's home and away xG disparities ^[3] reveal how location can impact player output, influencing lineup decisions.

Each type of stat plays a unique role in weekly planning:

Understanding Market Trends
Combining form stats with ownership data can uncover popular picks and under-the-radar options, giving you a competitive edge.

A well-rounded approach is key. For instance, Newcastle's strong home xG suggests their attackers are worth considering, but this should always be weighed against upcoming fixtures and recent form.

Staying on top of these stats every week ensures you're making informed, timely decisions.

1. Expected Goals (xG)

Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that assesses the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal based on factors like shot position and accuracy. For FPL managers, it’s a powerful tool to predict attacking returns. Take Manchester City, for instance - boasting a league-best 1.91 xG per game, they clearly dominate offensively ^[1].

Impact on Weekly Decision-Making

xG data plays a key role in shaping weekly FPL strategies. Consider Liverpool, with an impressive away xG of 1.87 per game ^[1]. This consistency makes their attackers reliable options, no matter the fixture location, and can heavily influence transfer decisions and captaincy picks.

Liverpool's steady xG makes their attackers dependable, while Newcastle’s stronger home xG suggests they’re better suited for home matchups.

Accessing and Using xG Data

Platforms like FootyStats and Understat make xG data easy to find and utilize. FootyStats, for example, evaluates attacking potential by analyzing shot quality and frequency ^[1]. On the flip side, Southampton’s high xGA (1.84) reveals defensive vulnerabilities, making their opponents’ attackers appealing picks ^[1].

"xG is considered one of the most predictive statistics in FPL because it directly correlates with goal-scoring potential. Unlike other metrics that might be influenced by various factors, xG provides a clear indication of a team or player's attacking capability" ^[1].

While xG offers insight into scoring potential, combining it with Expected Assists (xA) can provide a more complete picture of a player’s overall attacking contributions.

2. Expected Assists (xA)

Expected Assists (xA) evaluates the likelihood that a pass will result in a goal. This metric is particularly useful for spotting players who excel at setting up scoring opportunities. It’s a key tool for assessing midfielders known for creating chances, wing-backs delivering crosses, and forwards involved in team build-up play. When combined with metrics like xG (Expected Goals), xA offers a clearer view of attacking potential.

Looking at xA trends alongside upcoming fixtures can help FPL managers decide which players to transfer in or captain. Players who consistently generate quality chances, regardless of the opposition, often become standout FPL picks. Tools like Understat provide easy access to xA data, making it simpler to compare player trends and refine strategies.

While xA highlights attacking contributions, balancing this with defensive stats, like clean sheet odds, is crucial for a well-rounded FPL approach.

3. Clean Sheet Probabilities

Arsenal tops the chart with a 53% chance of keeping a clean sheet, closely followed by Manchester City at 51% and Liverpool at 44%. These numbers are a key factor when deciding on defenders and goalkeepers who can consistently rack up points.

There’s a noticeable gap between the top teams and the rest, which highlights distinct defensive tiers:

Premium-priced defenders from teams like Arsenal and Manchester City often justify their cost with these high probabilities. On the other hand, it might be wise to steer clear of defenders from teams with significantly lower chances, like West Ham.

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) platforms make it easy to check clean sheet probabilities, which are influenced by factors like match conditions, team form, and the strength of their opponents. For example, Tottenham’s 31% probability might seem decent, but managers should also weigh their upcoming fixtures and recent defensive performances before making a move.

Pairing clean sheet probabilities with attacking stats like expected goals (xG) can help build a balanced squad that performs well at both ends of the pitch. While these probabilities are great for defensive planning, keeping an eye on trends like player ownership can give managers an extra edge in weekly decisions.

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4. Player Ownership Trends

Player ownership trends give insight into which players the FPL community trusts and how those choices can influence rank shifts and team value. These patterns play a big role in shaping strategies and tracking potential rank changes throughout the season.

Effective Ownership and Its Role in Strategy

Effective ownership (EO) blends a player's ownership percentage with their captaincy rates to show their influence on rank changes. For instance, Bruno Fernandes' EO of 103.77% means his performance has a direct impact on rank stability for a large portion of managers.

How to Track and Use Ownership Trends

You can easily monitor ownership trends using FPL stats tools like Fantasy Overlord and Premier Fantasy Tools. To make the most of these trends, focus on:

• How a player's form aligns with ownership changes
• The influence of upcoming fixtures on ownership patterns
• The potential for rank shifts based on these trends

The trick is finding a balance between highly-owned players and those less popular but with strong potential. Combining ownership data with stats like expected goals (xG) and clean sheet probabilities can help you make smarter decisions about transfers and captaincy.

While ownership trends reflect the community's confidence, digging into fixture difficulty can help you spot hidden gems that could give you an edge.

5. Fixture Difficulty Ratings

Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) offer a data-driven approach to evaluate upcoming matches, complementing ownership trends and helping managers fine-tune transfer and captaincy decisions.

How FDRs Help Predict Performance

FDRs assess upcoming fixtures by factoring in team strength, recent form, and historical results. For instance, Manchester City's impressive home xG of 2.02 per game highlights why their attackers are often strong choices for home matches ^[1].

The value of FDRs becomes even clearer when looking at home and away performance differences. Liverpool, for example, has a striking xG differential of +22.20 between home (55.78) and away (33.58) games. This makes their players especially appealing for home fixtures ^[1].

Using FDRs Strategically

FDRs work best when paired with metrics like xG, xA, and defensive stats. For example, Arsenal's league-leading xGA of 1.09 makes their defenders excellent options for matches against weaker opponents, offering both clean sheet potential and occasional attacking contributions ^[1].

Tools to Simplify FDR Analysis

Platforms like Fantasy Overlord and Premier Fantasy Tools make FDR analysis more accessible. Their color-coded systems highlight favorable fixture streaks and tough matchups, helping managers plan transfers and lineups with ease.

One key takeaway: 14 out of 17 Premier League teams posted better xG stats at home ^[3]. This trend underscores the importance of factoring in fixture location when selecting players.

6. Form and Consistency Metrics

Form and consistency metrics help distinguish players delivering steady returns from those riding short-lived hot streaks. These stats are key for managers looking to make informed decisions about their Fantasy Premier League (FPL) lineup.

A player's form rating blends recent performances with their historical reliability. For instance, Erling Haaland has showcased exceptional consistency, averaging 2.3 goal involvements per home game this season ^[1].

Impact on Weekly Decision-Making

Form metrics are especially useful when comparing players in similar price brackets. Opt for those with steady returns, particularly if they have favorable upcoming fixtures. Arsenal's defensive record at home is a great example of this, with their league-leading xGA of 1.09 making their defenders dependable picks ^[1].

Relevance to Transfer and Captaincy Planning

Combining form metrics with fixture difficulty can lead to smarter transfer and captaincy decisions. When assessing players, focus on metrics like:

Tools like Fantasy Overlord and FPL Analytics make it easier to track form, offering visual insights into trends. These platforms can help managers spot opportunities before others catch on.

"Expert FPL managers often rely heavily on form and consistency metrics to make informed decisions. They analyze these metrics to identify patterns and trends that can help them predict future performance."

For the best results, pair form metrics with other data points like xG and ownership trends. This approach gives you a well-rounded strategy for weekly planning. Just don't forget to monitor injuries and suspensions, as they can disrupt even the most reliable options.

7. Injury and Suspension Updates

Keeping up with player injuries and suspensions is a key part of managing your FPL team effectively. These updates can influence team performance and often require quick adjustments in your weekly plans.

Impact on Weekly Decision-Making

Injury news typically surfaces 24-48 hours before matches, so staying on top of official team updates and press conferences is essential. Tools like Fantasy Football Fix and WhoScored make it easier to track player availability.

Relevance to Transfer and Captaincy Planning

Knowing which players are unavailable helps you avoid poor transfer and captaincy decisions. For example, during the 2023/24 season, Liverpool's struggles due to injuries to key players highlighted how such updates can influence team performance. Staying informed not only prevents wasted transfers but also helps you spot opportunities for replacements with strong fixtures or good form.

Managing Injury Information

Here are some trusted sources for injury and suspension updates:

• Official Premier League website
• Club press conferences
• Fantasy Football Fix for FPL stats
• WhoScored for detailed player updates

When reviewing injury news, think about both short-term and long-term effects. A minor issue might only impact one gameweek, while a more serious injury could require adjustments over several weeks. Similarly, keep an eye on players nearing suspension due to yellow card accumulation, as this can influence your planning.

Using Weekly FPL Stats

In Fantasy Premier League (FPL), stats are most effective when used together to get a clearer view. Here's how you can make the most of weekly stats through popular FPL tools and platforms.

Combining Stats for Better Transfers

Making smart transfer decisions means blending stats like expected goals (xG) with Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR). For example, Manchester City averages an impressive 1.91 xG per game ^[1], making their attackers standout options during favorable fixtures.

Picking Defenders with Clean Sheet Odds

When choosing defenders or goalkeepers, focus on teams with strong defensive data. Look for high clean sheet probabilities and low expected goals against (xGA) to pinpoint reliable options.

Smarter Captaincy Choices

For captaincy, prioritize players with high xG, good fixtures, and strong past performances. For instance, Liverpool attackers average 1.87 xG in away games ^[1], making them excellent captaincy picks against weaker defenses. Key factors to consider include:

• Home vs Away Form
• Opposition Defensive Stats
• Historical Performance (check via FPL Analytics)

Ownership Data for Differentials

Using ownership stats strategically can help you find low-owned players with high potential. Tools like Fantasy Overlord track ownership trends, helping you identify impactful differentials when combined with xG and FDR.

Weekly Workflow Tips

• Late Week (Thursday/Friday): Check team news, clean sheet probabilities, and xG stats on Fantasy Football Fix to plan your moves.
• Pre-Deadline: Use tools like Understat and FPL Analytics to finalize transfers based on form and FDR.
• After the Gameweek Ends: Review stats to identify underperforming players who still show potential for future returns.

Conclusion

Keeping track of key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) stats is crucial for making smarter decisions and boosting your team's performance. The seven metrics we’ve discussed offer a solid foundation for evaluating players and planning your strategy.

Metrics like xG (expected goals) and FDR (fixture difficulty rating) help you spot player potential, while focusing on defenders from teams likely to keep clean sheets can improve your defensive picks. When combined, these stats become even more useful, especially when using tools like Fantasy Overlord, Understat, and FPL Analytics.

Here’s a simple workflow to make the most of these metrics:

The best FPL managers combine data with football knowledge. Consider player form, upcoming fixtures, and tactical insights to make well-rounded decisions. Platforms like Fantasy Overlord can help track ownership trends, while Understat and FPL Analytics offer deeper performance breakdowns.

Related Blog Posts

• How to Use xG Data for Better FPL Transfer Decisions